economic crisis

Since 2008, the date of the last major financial and economic crisis, with the accompanying mobile disasters at the level of countries, stock exchanges, banks, and major financial and economic companies; From sharp collapses inflicted and saved by the disguised nationalization policies and stimulus packages that put countries in the trap of seeking exit at any cost, the price was to buy time until further notice.

And it seems that the other notice of the upcoming global crisis has begun to rear its head again. Since the advent of Covid-19 and the catastrophic closures that followed due to global health security, disasters have been at the heart of the global economy at all levels, and this is not evidenced by the oil prices that have plunged In April 2020, to minus 38 dollars (-38), in an unprecedented historical precedent, through the economic collapses of all vital industrial, tourism and entertainment sectors in the world, until losses were estimated at more than 12 to 15 trillion dollars; It pushed the countries of the major major economies to the paths of stimulus packages, the purchase of debt and institutions, and other exceptional measures that affected all aspects of life and their indicators reflected in the essence of the global economy, accumulating inflation that ruthlessly stormed the global economy, and generated panic from the stage of fear of stagflation solutions that would make things worse. Worse and difficult to track the crisis, despite all attempts to advance through a series of measures, not the last of which is raising the interest rate from here and new stimulus packages from there.

Today's look at the numbers of the world's economies is undoubtedly aware of the huge amount of indebtedness that is rising from moment to moment, and is more aware that we were on the verge of a major crisis at the economic level all over the world.

All this, and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis was not present on the world stage, so how can we with its solutions to accompany all the previous facts and add to them real crises in the energy sectors and global energy security, whose prices soared to the sky, in the range of 140 dollars for oil at the beginning of the crisis and it is still running above hundred dollars a barrel. As for gas, there is nothing wrong with the almost doubling of its prices, hitting all sectors of life and production at the same time.

As for food prices and food security, the analyzes are almost endless about the danger of the future, with the continuation of the battles, the escalation of events, sanctions, economic and political fluctuations, and upcoming geo-political alliances. Talking about famine and its solutions has become a real danger.

The figures on the shores of the current crisis confirm the seriousness of the matter, and I do not inform that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for global economic growth last Tuesday (April 19, 2022) by about a full percentage point, citing the Russian war in Ukraine. He warned that inflation is now a "clear and present danger" in many countries. In its latest report, the Fund referred to the prospects for the global economy, expecting the war to increase inflation, and warning that the tightening of Western sanctions on Russia to target energy exports would cause Another big drop in global production. The International Monetary Fund stated that other risks to the outlook include a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, due to continued closures due to a rise in new cases of coronavirus; Renewables, which are now worrying the paths of recovery.

In line with the International Monetary Fund to describe the catastrophic effects of the game of borrowing a crisis from a crisis, central banks are preparing to face huge and increasing pressures to fight inflation with a tighter monetary policy, and further tightening of sanctions could accelerate this step, which may cause more difficulties, especially in the countries of the economies. developing countries that are seriously at stake.

As for the crises of the largest global economy (the United States), the discussion continues despite our realization that America generates the crisis and then emerges from it, leaving the world's economies mired in its perils. The indicators of the American economy are not well, and inflation in the United States has reached about 9 percent, a large percentage that has not been recorded for more than four decades, even at the height of the 2008 crisis. Are we facing a deeper crisis?!

And consequently, the current crisis situation leads to fear of greater increases in inflation rates, which will negatively and sharply affect the cost of living, especially since the rise in wages and salaries is less than the rise in inflation levels!!

And all of this is accompanied by the return of the wheel of the economy to recovery and rotation after the closures of Covid-19, so there is great pressure on demand, amid problems in the supply and supply chains, as the products and raw materials needed for industry and consumption are not secured quickly and smoothly, due to the delay in manufacturing. the inability to meet the demand due to a combination of events; Not least the energy price turmoil and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis have been reflected in the industrial costs.

To be sure, it was remarkable what five German economic institutes highlighted the consequences of the Russian gas halt on the country, and the great effects of the decision on the German economy and subsequently. on the global economy. According to the joint economic forecasts of the institutes, in the event of an immediate interruption of Russian gas supplies, this would cost Germany's economic output 220 billion euros ($238 billion) in both 2022 and 2023. This would equate to more than 6.5 percent of Germany's annual economic output, and consequently more repercussions for the global economy, which is faltering day by day.

Economic facts confirm the seriousness of the economic situation for the entire world, as there is no complete recovery from Covid-19, as well as growth rates are declining, inflation is sweeping fragile and emerging economies, unemployment indicators are increasing and commodity prices are increasing, and the costs of supply chains are increasing, so are we facing a global crisis Big like 1929 or the 2008 crisis?!

It is certain that the Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, said what she clearly meant: “The world is in a crisis on top of another, with devastating human costs and a huge setback for the global economy.” It seems that a new global economic crisis is about to emerge, so get ready and fasten your belts!!